Cloud Gaming Retention Forecast Estimator

1. Set the cohort size
Enter the number of players active at the beginning of the forecast.

2. Enter period retention
Use the percentage expected to remain active from one period to the next.

3. Choose the horizon
Enter how many equal periods to project. A period can be a week, month, or another interval as long as the retention rate uses the same interval.

4. Read the final cohort
The main result shows the estimated active players after all periods.

5. Check cumulative activity
Use retained player-periods as a simple measure of total activity carried through the forecast horizon.

Formula

Players after n periods = Starting players × Retention rate^n Cumulative retained player-periods = Σ(Starting players × Retention rate^t), t = 1…n

The same retention rate is applied in every period and no new players, reactivations, or cohort mixing are added.

What the result means

With a constant 82% month-to-month retention rate, the original 10,000-player cohort declines to roughly 3,040 active players by month six.

Retention forecasts are scenario estimates and may differ from observed cohort behavior.

Given

• Starting players: 10,000
• Monthly retention: 82%
• Forecast: 6 months

Calculation
Final players = 10,000 × 0.82^6
Final players ≈ 3,040
Final retained share ≈ 30.4%

Result
About 3,040 players after 6 periods

With a constant 82% month-to-month retention rate, the original 10,000-player cohort declines to roughly 3,040 active players by month six.