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RSU Vesting Income Forecast Estimator

Forecast gross and after-tax income from future RSU vesting events using a simple annual vesting schedule. Enter the RSUs expected to vest each year, current share price, assumed annual share-price growth, forecast length, and an effective tax rate to estimate cumulative vest value and after-tax proceeds.

This is designed for compensation planning rather than investment performance analysis. It can help you compare how much of future pay may come from equity under different price assumptions, but it does not model grant refreshes, cliffs, quarterly vest dates, forfeiture, or employer-specific withholding mechanics.

Inputs

RSUs/year
USD/share
%
years
%
Result
—
Forecast cumulative after-tax vest value
Cumulative gross vest value—
Estimated taxes—
Cumulative after-tax value—
Final-year vest value—

1. Enter annual vesting units
Use the number of RSUs you expect to vest in each full forecast year.

2. Enter the current share price
This is the base price from which the annual growth scenario begins.

3. Choose a price-growth assumption
Use a constant annual percentage change for the stock price.

4. Set the forecast length
Choose the number of years over which the same annual RSU quantity is modeled.

5. Add an effective tax rate
The tool applies this rate to cumulative gross vest value to estimate the after-tax portion.

Forecast share price in year t = current price × (1 + growth rate)^t
Gross vest value in year t = annual RSUs × forecast share price in year t
Cumulative after-tax value = sum of annual gross vest values × (1 - effective tax rate)

Where:

  • annual RSUs = units modeled as vesting each year
  • growth rate = constant annual share-price change
  • effective tax rate = user-entered combined rate applied to vest value

Assumptions: The same number of RSUs is modeled each year. The estimator excludes future grants, cancellations, intra-year vest timing, dividends, and post-vest investment returns.

What the result means

Actual RSU income depends on vest schedules, future grants, share prices, employment status, withholding, and tax rules.

Change one assumption at a time to compare scenarios and understand which input has the largest effect on the result.

Given:

  • 800 RSUs vest each year
  • Current share price: $50
  • Annual price growth: 5%
  • Forecast: 4 years
  • Effective tax rate: 35%

Calculation:
Year 1 price = $52.50 and gross vest value = $42,000. Year 2 price = $55.13; year 3 = $57.88; year 4 = $60.78. Add the four gross vest values, then multiply by 65% to estimate after-tax value.

Result:
The main result is the cumulative modeled after-tax value of the four annual vesting events.

Interpretation: Because the model compounds price annually, later vest years contribute more when the growth assumption is positive.

Does this model quarterly vesting?

No. It treats vesting as one annual amount for each forecast year. For a rough annual compensation forecast, that can be sufficient; a detailed cash-flow plan would need the actual vest dates.

Can I use a negative share-price growth rate?

Yes, as long as the rate is greater than -100%. A negative rate reduces later-year vest values.

Should I include unvested grants that may be forfeited?

Only include units you want represented in the scenario. The tool does not assign a probability of continued employment or forfeiture.

Why is tax applied to the cumulative gross amount instead of year by year?

With one constant effective rate, applying it to the cumulative total produces the same result as applying the same rate to each year. If your expected rate changes by year, this simplified estimator cannot capture that variation.

Is post-vest stock appreciation included?

No. Each year contributes value at the modeled vest-date price, and the tool does not compound those vested proceeds after the vesting event.