- Enter the portfolio available when withdrawals begin.
- Add the first year’s planned withdrawal.
- Set return, inflation, and the number of withdrawal years.
- Review the rate and simplified real-balance projection together.
Safe Withdrawal Rate Estimator
Measure the first-year withdrawal rate implied by your portfolio and spending plan. The estimator also converts the withdrawal to a monthly amount and projects a simplified inflation-adjusted balance over your selected horizon.
Planning assumptions
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$
%
%
years
Result
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Initial annual withdrawal rate
Monthly first-year withdrawal—
Real return assumption—
Projected real ending balance—
Total real withdrawals—
Initial withdrawal rate = First-year withdrawal ÷ Starting portfolio × 100
The projection uses an approximate real return of (1 + nominal return) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1 and subtracts a constant real withdrawal annually.
What the result means
The result describes the first withdrawal as a percentage of the starting portfolio. It is not a probability of success or a universal safe rate.
Market order, asset allocation, fees, taxes, and flexible spending rules are not modeled. Negative projected balances are shown as zero.
With a $1,200,000 portfolio and a $48,000 first-year withdrawal, the initial withdrawal rate is 4.00% and the first monthly amount is $4,000.
What is the withdrawal rate on $48,000 from a $1.2 million portfolio?
The initial rate is $48,000 divided by $1,200,000, which equals 4.00%.
Does the ending balance projection prove the withdrawal is safe?
No. It uses a constant real return and cannot represent market volatility or sequence-of-returns risk.
Why does the estimator ask for both return and inflation?
They are combined into an approximate real return so the ending balance can be displayed in today’s purchasing power.
Can I enter a zero annual withdrawal?
Yes. The rate becomes 0%, and the projection shows how the portfolio could grow under the real return assumption.
Are taxes deducted from the withdrawal amount?
No. Enter the gross portfolio withdrawal required to cover spending and any taxes you expect to pay.