This estimator calculates the expected value of a randomized in-game drop by combining each possible reward value with its probability. It is useful for cloud gaming operators, game teams, and players who want one average-value figure for loot tables, reward events, or randomized bundles.
The result is a probability-weighted average, not a prediction of what any single opening will produce. Comparing the expected value with an entry price, time cost, or alternative reward can help evaluate whether the drop structure is economically attractive while keeping the random nature of individual outcomes clear.
1. Enter reward values
Use a consistent monetary or internal valuation for each of the three reward tiers.
2. Enter drop probabilities
Enter the chance of each tier. The three probabilities must add to 100%.
3. Review the expected value
The large result shows the long-run average value per randomized drop.
4. Compare scale
Use the 10-drop value to translate the per-drop average into a small batch expectation.
Formula
Expected value = (V1 × P1) + (V2 × P2) + (V3 × P3)
P1 + P2 + P3 = 1.00Probabilities are converted from percentages to decimals. Reward values must use the same valuation basis.
Over many independent drops with the same table, the average reward value would approach about $5.40 per drop.
Game reward values are estimates and depend on the valuation method you choose.
Given
Calculation
EV = ($2 × 0.70) + ($8 × 0.25) + ($40 × 0.05)
$1.40 + $2.00 + $2.00 = $5.40
Result
$5.40 expected value per drop
Over many independent drops with the same table, the average reward value would approach about $5.40 per drop.
No. Expected value is a long-run average across many trials. A single drop can be below or above that amount.
Use one consistent basis, such as market value, store-equivalent value, or an internal point value. Mixing valuation methods makes the average hard to interpret.
These three inputs represent the complete set of outcomes modeled by this page. If your drop table has more outcomes, combine them into tiers before entering them.
Yes. Values such as 2.5% are supported, as long as the total remains 100%.
Drop chance describes the probability of one outcome. Expected drop value combines both probability and reward value across all modeled outcomes.