Marketing A/B Test Sample Size Estimator

The Marketing A/B Test Sample Size Estimator calculates the approximate number of visitors or observations needed in each variant to detect a specified relative change in a binary conversion rate. It uses a two-sided normal approximation with the selected confidence level and statistical power.

Marketers can use it before launching a landing-page, email, checkout, or ad test. The estimate helps balance test sensitivity against runtime, but it assumes independent observations and a stable baseline conversion rate.

Calculator inputs

%
% relative
%
%
Result
Sample size per variant
Total sample size
Expected test conversion
Absolute difference

1. Enter the baseline rate
Use a recent conversion rate from traffic similar to the planned experiment.

2. Choose the minimum lift
Enter the smallest relative improvement worth detecting.

3. Set confidence and power
Higher values reduce false positives or missed effects but require more observations.

4. Read the per-variant requirement
Allocate at least the displayed sample to both control and test variants.

5. Allow for data loss
Increase the target if exclusions, tracking loss, or uneven allocation are expected.

p₂ = p₁ × (1 + Relative lift)
n ≈ [zα/2 × √(2p̄(1−p̄)) + zβ × √(p₁(1−p₁)+p₂(1−p₂))]² ÷ (p₂−p₁)²

p₁ is the baseline conversion rate, p₂ is the target test rate, p̄ is their average, zα/2 corresponds to the two-sided confidence level, and zβ corresponds to power.

What the result means

The output is the approximate sample required in each equally sized variant.

This normal approximation can be less reliable for very rare events, small samples, repeated peeking, clustered users, or multiple comparisons.

Given: 5% baseline conversion, 15% relative lift, 95% confidence, and 80% power.

Calculation: Target rate = 5% × 1.15 = 5.75%, an absolute difference of 0.75 percentage points. Applying the two-sided normal approximation gives about 14,758 observations per variant.

Result: Plan for roughly 29,516 total observations across two equal variants.

Is minimum detectable lift relative or absolute?

It is relative. A 15% lift on a 5% baseline produces a 5.75% target rate, not 20%.

Why does a smaller lift require more traffic?

Smaller effects are harder to distinguish from random variation, so the required sample rises quickly.

Can I stop as soon as significance appears?

Repeatedly checking and stopping early can inflate false positives unless a sequential testing method is used.

What if traffic is split 70/30?

This calculator assumes equal allocation. Unequal allocation generally increases the total sample needed.

Does the estimate guarantee a significant result?

No. It sets the planned probability of detecting the specified effect under the model assumptions; actual results may differ.