This estimator projects retained players for game development using a starting cohort, a recurring retention rate, and a number of periods. It applies the same survival percentage repeatedly, producing both the forecasted active population and the cumulative share of the original cohort that remains.
The calculation is useful for quick sensitivity checks around feature launches, content cadence, or cohort targets. It is not a substitute for measured retention curves: real cohorts often decay at different rates in early and mature periods, so the constant-rate assumption is best treated as a scenario rather than a prediction guarantee.
1. Enter the initial cohort
Provide the number of players at the start of the forecast.
2. Set retention per period
Enter the percentage expected to remain from one period to the next. Use a rate that matches your chosen period length.
3. Choose the forecast horizon
Enter how many equal periods to project.
4. Read retained and lost players
The main result shows the expected remaining players; supporting results show the retained share and cumulative losses.
The retention rate is converted from a percentage to a decimal. This formula assumes the same rate applies independently in every forecast period.
The result is the size of the original cohort expected to remain after the selected number of periods under a constant retention assumption.
Do not mix daily retention with weekly or monthly periods. When actual cohort data shows changing retention rates over time, use a period-specific survival curve instead.
Given: 12,000 starting players, 82% retention per period, and 5 periods.
Calculation: Retained share = 0.82⁵ = 0.37074. Retained players = 12,000 × 0.37074 = 4,448.9. Players lost = 12,000 − 4,448.9 = 7,551.1.
Result: About 4,449 players, or 37.07% of the original cohort, remain after five periods.
It is the share of players expected to carry from one period into the next. The period can be a day, week, or month as long as the rate and horizon use the same interval.
No. Repeated retention compounds, so 80% per period for five periods leaves 0.8⁵, or about 32.77%, of the starting cohort.
Yes. A 100% rate keeps the starting cohort unchanged across all periods in this simplified model.
No. It tracks survival of the starting cohort only and does not add reactivated or newly acquired players.
Use the same cohort definition and period boundaries, then compare forecasted survivors with measured cohort retention. Large gaps indicate the constant-rate assumption should be revised.