- Enter cohort enrollment. Use the learner count for the program or period you are forecasting.
- Estimate reliable device access. Enter the percentage expected to have adequate access for required digital work.
- Enter completion among learners with access. Base this on relevant program history or a planning scenario.
- Review forecast completions. The calculator applies the access factor first, then the completion factor.
- Compare access scenarios. Increase or decrease the access percentage to see how closing a device gap changes the modeled outcome.
Student Device Completion Forecast Estimator
Forecast the number of learners likely to complete a device-dependent learning program from enrollment, expected reliable device access, and the completion rate among learners with adequate access. This helps schools and training teams explore how device availability may affect expected outcomes when coursework, assessments, or practice require regular digital access. The model is useful for scenario planning, especially when a portion of the cohort may face device downtime, sharing conflicts, or limited take-home access.
The estimate does not prove that device access causes completion. Instruction quality, attendance, connectivity, learner support, and course difficulty can all matter and should be considered separately.
Inputs
learners
%
%
Result
—
forecast completions
Learners with reliable access—
Overall forecast completion rate—
Estimated access gap—
Forecast completions = Enrolled learners × (Reliable device access % ÷ 100) × (Completion among learners with access % ÷ 100)
This sequential model first estimates the number with adequate device access and then applies a completion assumption to that group.
What the result means
The result is a scenario estimate of completed learners under the entered device-access and completion assumptions.
Do not interpret the modeled access gap as the only reason for non-completion; the calculator isolates one planning factor for analysis.
Given: 320 enrolled learners, 95% reliable device access, and 88% completion among learners with access.
Calculation: Learners with access = 320 × 0.95 = 304. Forecast completions = 304 × 0.88 = 267.52.
Result: About 268 learners are forecast to complete, or approximately 83.6% of enrollment.
The scenario also implies an access gap of about 16 learners before other completion factors are considered.
What counts as reliable device access?
Use a definition that matches the program, such as access during all required class periods or dependable take-home access. The key is to apply the same definition consistently.
Should internet access be included in the percentage?
Include connectivity only if your definition of reliable device access requires it. Otherwise model connectivity separately so the device assumption remains clear.
What if every learner has a device?
Set reliable device access to 100%. The forecast will then depend on enrollment and the completion rate among learners with access.
Does this prove devices improve completion?
No. The calculator is a planning scenario and does not establish causation. Many academic and operational factors can affect completion.
When should I use the capacity estimator instead?
Use capacity when you need to know how many learners the device pool can serve. Use this forecast when you want an expected completion count for an enrolled cohort.